Oscar Nominations 2024

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so it goes (again)!  Asleep for a few years. Yes, I saw the on-stage Slap in 2022, Michelle Yeoh kicking butt, and Barbenheimer. Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Anora

DIRECTOR: Sean Baker, Anora
ACTOR: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
ACTRESS: Demi Moore, The Substance Mikey Madison, Anora
SUP. ACTOR: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
SUP. ACTRESS: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Anora
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: Conclave
ANIMATED FILM: The Wild Robot Flow
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Emilia Pérez I'm Still Here
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked
EDITING: Conclave Anora
SCORE: The Brutalist
SONG: “El Mal", Emilia Pérez
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: The Substance
SOUND: Dune: Part Two
VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune: Part Two
DOCUMENTARY: No Other Land
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: I Am Ready, Warden The Only Girl in the Orchestra
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: Beautiful Men In the Shadow of the Cypress
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Anuja I'm Not a Robot

Anora: 3 5 wins

The Brutalist: 3 wins

Emilia Pérez: 3 2 wins

Conclave: 2 1 wins

Dune: Part Two: 2 wins

The Substance: 2 1 wins 

Wicked: 2 wins

Anora has mostly dominated the industry, winning the awards from the Producers, Directors, and Writing Guilds, for the best film of the year (and on a preferential ballot that the Academy also uses), for director Sean Baker, and for its original screenplay. It's strength not just in first place rankings, but in second, third, fourth positions on voters' ballots could put it over the top. And it did! The enthusiasm among all the guilds and strength among BAFTA seems to overcome the merging of acting guilds and expanded membership enamored with the established actors of Conclave and Demi Moore as the veteran actress. But it did lose the Screen Actors Guild award for ensemble cast to Conclave. Conclave, even without a requisite directing nomination for German-born Edward Berger (who was also snubbed two years prior for his Best Picture-nominated adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front), is still well positioned to win Picture, as the Picture/Director splits have become more common in the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup- see 12 Years a Slave (2013), Spotlight (2015), Moonlight (2016). Furthermore, the barrier of winning Picture without even having a nominated director has largely faded, with the exceptions of Wings (1927/28), Grand Hotel (1931/32), and Driving Miss Daisy (1989), now being matched with Argo (2012), Green Book (2018), and CODA (2021). 

The splitting of the PGA, BAFTA (British Academy), and the Golden Globes' Picture- Drama and Picture- Musical or Comedy, between Anora, Conclave, The Brutalist, and Emilia Pérez, respectively- is a rare occurrence. It's happened twice before- in 2006 (Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, Babel, and Dreamgirls; but only the first three films were actually nominated at the Oscars, and they all lost to The Departed) and in 2022 (Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin; EEAAO parlayed both its PGA and Critics Choice wins, along with SAG Ensemble, to win the Oscar). And now Anora rises above the split decision to Oscar victory, even without a SAG Ensemble win. Anora has the PGA and Critics Choice win (as well as strength from its DGA and WGA wins). But Conclave is likely in a close-finish race with Anora, with both the SAG Ensemble and BAFTA wins. The strength of Conclave would maybe be more pronounced 15 years ago (think The King's Speech vs. The Social Network), but the Academy membership has changed as well, becoming a more diverse, younger, and inclusive body with international tastes. Aligning with an independent film gem like Anora, which is also a rare American film to succeed at the Cannes Film Festival last spring, shows how distinct the voting body has become.

The Brutalist seemed to show strength at the Golden Globes with wins for Picture- Drama, Actor for Adrien Brody, and Director for Brady Corbet. But aside from Brody's dominance (GG, Critics Choice, BAFTA), the wins haven't manifested fully, aside from Corbet picking up director for BAFTA. Baker has the dominant position with his DGA win for Anora, but both missed inexplicably at the Critics Choice, losing to Jon M. Chu for Wicked, who wasn't even nominated at the Oscars. Ultimately, the enthusiasm for Baker was there, with him winning for Editing, Original Screenplay, Director, and as one of the producers- the first time a person has won 4 Oscars for the same film. And while Brody did lose at SAG to Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown, it feels like the performance is being lauded as a proxy for the film's stature. The Chalamet romance with SAG did not translate, as Brody went 2 for 2 with the Oscars, after a 22 year gap from winning for The Pianist in 2003, becoming the youngest-ever Best Actor winner.

Emilia Pérez has the field-leading 13 nominations (the most ever for a film not in the English language, and one shy of the 14 nomination record shared between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land). The online criticism and scandal re: nominated lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón's past tweets notwithstanding, it seems set for wins for Supporting Actress, Original Song, and International Film. There is a potential upset for the latter category, as Emilia Pérez and I'm Still Here are both double nominated for International Film (representing France and Brazil, respectively) and for Picture overall and sure enough, voters went for I'm Still Here, denying Emilia the victory; I'm Still Here won Actress-Drama at the Golden Globes for Fernanda Torres (who is also the last of the film's 3 nods at the Oscars). She has a dark horse status, making it to the Oscars without any other precursor nominations, but is unlikely to usurp either Demi Moore for The Substance (who also won Golden Globes' Actress- Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and SAG) or Mikey Madison for Anora (BAFTA Actress). Anora is Mikey Madison, so the rising tide lifts all boats to Oscar gold.

In 2021, I got 17 out of 23 correct. Like I said, I've been on sabbatical. We’ll see how many I get wrong this time. 16 out of 23. I took a hit, underestimating Anora and whiffing on the shorts.

Look for my more detailed reactions later... maybe... Eh, Letterboxd is where I thrive.

Oscar Predictions 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Nomadland

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Anthony Hopkins, The Father
ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman Frances McDormand, Nomadland
SUP. ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
SUP. ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: The Father
ANIMATED FILM: Soul
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland Mank
COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
EDITING: Sound of Metal
SCORE: Soul
SONG: “Speak Low”, One Night in Miami "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SOUND: Sound of Metal
VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet
DOCUMENTARY: My Octopus Teacher
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: A Love Song for Latasha Colette
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: If Anything Happens I Love You
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Feeling Through Two Distant Strangers

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: 3 2 wins

Nomadland: 3 wins

Promising Young Woman: 2 1 wins

Sound of Metal: 2 wins

Soul: 2 wins

The Father: 1 2 wins

Judas and the Black Messiah: 1 2 wins 

Mank: 1 2 wins

I expect Nomadland to claim Best Picture and Best Director, with Chloé Zhao becoming the second woman and the first Asian woman to win in the Director category. There have only been 7 women who have received Director nominations in the Academy’s 93 year history (and two of the nominations are from this year- Zhao and Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman). Nomadland has won during the awards season the BAFTA best film, Golden Globe best picture- drama, and the Producers’ Guild award (awarded by preferential ballot, the same vote calculation used by the Academy).  Last year, however, 1917 followed this same trajectory, only to fall short on Oscar night. Could The Trial of the Chicago 7 upset Nomadland? Nomadland wins Picture and Director, Chicago 7 goes home empty-handed as expected.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is missing a nomination for its director Aaron Sorkin. But the film’s all-star cast did win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, indicating strong support for it among many actors. This was the path to victory for last year’s improbable Oscar best picture winner Parasite (though that film also was nominated for- and won- Director, upsetting 1917 in both categories).  Like 1917 last year, Nomadland was not even nominated for the SAG ensemble award, but that statistic has faded in importance. Three Oscar Best Picture winners have missed out on a SAG ensemble nom- Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), and Green Book (2018). Now this SAG statistic adds Nomadland as an exception as well.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the first film since Walk the Line in 2005 to earn Actor and Actress nominations but not Picture. It is only the fourth film since 1970 and the 11th film ever to earn Actor and Actress but not Picture, Director or Screenplay. One of the other four is What’s Love Got to Do With It, which also had two Black acting leads. Chadwick Boseman did not score double posthumous nominations, missing out on Da 5 Bloods in Supporting Actor. But he is expected to become the third posthumous acting winner for Ma Rainey, after Peter Finch (Network) for Actor and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) for Supporting Actor. Wow. The telecast producers shuffle the awards presentation order to have Actress and Actor at the end of the ceremony, AFTER the Best Picture award. Actor is awarded to a still photo of Anthony Hopkins for The Father (the 83 year old winner is at home in Wales at 4am- asleep, he's not allowed to call in via Zoom, COVID pandemic be damned). Everybody expecting a Boseman win and acceptance speech by his widow are left surprised as the ceremony closes out awkwardly with an absent winner. The last time the Academy altered the presentation order to NOT have Picture as the final award of the evening was in 1971, when an Honorary Award was presented to Charlie Chaplin. He was in attendance and the telecast producers knew he would be.

The precursors are split among the Actress nominees, with Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) winning the (Broadcast Film) Critics’ Choice and Independent Spirit award, Audra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holliday) winning the Golden Globe, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) winning the SAG award, and Frances McDormand (Nomadland) winning the BAFTA. I was torn between Davis and McDormand (both previous Oscar winners), but I’m thinking the enthusiasm for Promising Young Woman might push Mulligan into first place. Nevermind, McDormand wins her third Oscar as lead actress, following wins for Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 14 and 3 years ago, respectively (she also won for co-producing Nomadland).

Two of my favorite films from last year- Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari- will likely make do with single acting wins in the Supporting categories (Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung). Judas also won Best Song for "Fight for You."

Last year, I got 20 out of 24 correct. 17 out of 23 this year. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are now combined into a single Sound award. We’ll see how many I get wrong.   

Look for my more detailed reactions later. But probably not.