Oscar Predictions 2016

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards to reflect how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: La La Land Moonlight

DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
ACTOR: Denzel Washington, Fences Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
ACTRESS: Emma Stone, La La Land
SUP. ACTOR: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
SUP. ACTRESS: Viola Davis, Fences
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Manchester by the Sea
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: Moonlight
ANIMATED FILM: Zootopia
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Salesman
PRODUCTION DESIGN: La La Land
CINEMATOGRAPHY: La La Land
COSTUME DESIGN: Jackie Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
EDITING: La La Land Hacksaw Ridge
SCORE: La La Land
SONG: "City of Stars", La La Land
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Star Trek Beyond Suicide Squad
SOUND MIXING: La La Land Hacksaw Ridge
SOUND EDITING: Hacksaw Ridge Arrival
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Jungle Book
DOCUMENTARY: O.J.: Made in America
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: Joe's Violin The White Helmets
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: Piper
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Ennemis Interieurs Sing

La La Land: 9 wins 6 wins
Fences: 2 wins 1 win
Moonlight: 2 wins 3 wins

Hacksaw Ridge: 1 2 wins

Manchester by the Sea: 1 2 wins

 

We'll see how it goes (again).  La La Land is an express train, likely to clean house with all those tech awards, though it'd be nice to see some love for the other titles (Moonlight, Arrival, Jackie).  Wow!  I can't believe they bungled that announcement.  Glad to see the love bestowed on Moonlight.  I'm also unsure about the Screenplay battle, where Manchester might lose to La La.  It didn't; Moonlight was rightfully honored.  It seems like Stone and Davis are acting locks, and Washington has an edge over Affleck (SAG vs. Globes/critics).  Except no, they go with Affleck.  The Supporting Actor seems fluid, between Ali (SAG/critics) and Patel (BAFTA- some overlap of the British Academy members).
 

There are other quirks with some of the below-the-title categories like Foreign Language Film, the two Sound awards, and the truly impenetrable Shorts.  I think I have a handle on Sound Mixing and Editing, then I blow it again.
 

Last year, I got 14 out of 24 correct.  If La La Land is as much of a monster as it seems, I'm hoping to do better.  Well, only slightly better: 15 out of 24 correct.
 

Look for my more detailed reactions later.