Oscar Predictions 2017

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards to reflect how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Shape of Water

DIRECTOR: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
ACTOR: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
ACTRESS: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
SUP. ACTOR: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
SUP. ACTRESS: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Get Out
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: Call Me By Your Name
ANIMATED FILM: Coco
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A Fantastic Woman
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Shape of Water
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Blade Runner 2049
COSTUME DESIGN: Phantom Thread
EDITING: Dunkirk
SCORE: The Shape of Water
SONG: "Remember Me", Coco
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Darkest Hour
SOUND MIXING: Dunkirk
SOUND EDITING: Dunkirk
VISUAL EFFECTS: War for the Planet of the Apes Blade Runner 2049
DOCUMENTARY: Faces/Places Icarus
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: Edith and Eddie Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: Dear Basketball
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: DeKalb Elementary The Silent Child

Dunkirk: 3 wins 
The Shape of Water: 3 4 wins 
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3 2 wins 
Coco: 2 wins 
Darkest Hour: 2 wins

We'll see how it goes (again).  Three Billboards won Picture at the Globes and BAFTA, plus the SAG Ensemble.  But director Martin McDonagh was not nominated for Director by the Academy; the only Oscar Best Picture winners without a nominated Director: Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Missing Daisy, and Argo.  But there seems to be enthusiasm for the acting ensemble (and likely winners in McDormand and Rockwell).  Even McDonagh has picked off some Screenplay wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA, so he could play spoiler there (over the deserving screenplays for Get Out and Lady Bird).  They honored McDormand and Rockwell, but the preferential ballot likely kept Three Billboards from the Picture win; a film that is divisive will struggle to win in the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup and ranked selections.

The Shape of Water won the BFCA, the PGA, and the DGA (for Del Toro); it wasn't even nominated for SAG Ensemble.  The last Best Picture Oscar winner to get in without that nomination was Braveheart.  This stat held up even last year, when La La Land missed out on the SAG Ensemble nomination and then, Oscar Picture win (envelope mishap notwithstanding).  The SAG Ensemble stat is blown, The Shape of Water wins!  Great to see Del Toro honored for Director as well.  We've had Picture/Director splits in 4 of the previous 5 years, so it's not necessarily a given.  The other common thread between Shape and Braveheart: both films won Best Picture without any acting, writing or editing wins.

Get Out and Lady Bird have no nominations in any of the below line craft categories (not acting, directing, writing).  Only five Best Pictures (The Broadway Melody, Grand Hotel, It Happened One Night, Annie Hall, Ordinary People) managed a win with such a handicap.  Sad to see Lady Bird go empty handed; it was a quality film, and Greta Gerwig is a talent.  Love that Jordan Peele was able to win Original Screenplay for Get Out, though that meant that Gerwig would lose.

Get Out would also be the first Best Picture winner with fewer than 5 nominations since Cavalcade in 1933.  Dunkirk has plenty of nominations, mostly in craft categories, but would be the first Best Picture winner without either nominations for acting or screenplay since Grand Hotel.  Christopher Nolan should probably just be happy he got a Director nod for Dunkirk; they ignored him for Memento (he received only an Original Screenplay nod), for Inception (which did make the expanded Picture lineup and won in 4 craft categories), and for The Dark Knight (the Picture and Director snubs are what triggered the expanded 10 Picture lineup the following year).

 

Last year, I got 15 out of 24 correct. Yes, 19 out of 24!  I do like the years when they split the wealth, but it tends to lead to a low prediction score.  Seems like it was a predictable year after all.
 

Look for my more detailed reactions later.