Oscar Predictions 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Nomadland

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Anthony Hopkins, The Father
ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman Frances McDormand, Nomadland
SUP. ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
SUP. ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: The Father
ANIMATED FILM: Soul
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland Mank
COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
EDITING: Sound of Metal
SCORE: Soul
SONG: “Speak Low”, One Night in Miami "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SOUND: Sound of Metal
VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet
DOCUMENTARY: My Octopus Teacher
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: A Love Song for Latasha Colette
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: If Anything Happens I Love You
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Feeling Through Two Distant Strangers

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: 3 2 wins

Nomadland: 3 wins

Promising Young Woman: 2 1 wins

Sound of Metal: 2 wins

Soul: 2 wins

The Father: 1 2 wins

Judas and the Black Messiah: 1 2 wins 

Mank: 1 2 wins

I expect Nomadland to claim Best Picture and Best Director, with Chloé Zhao becoming the second woman and the first Asian woman to win in the Director category. There have only been 7 women who have received Director nominations in the Academy’s 93 year history (and two of the nominations are from this year- Zhao and Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman). Nomadland has won during the awards season the BAFTA best film, Golden Globe best picture- drama, and the Producers’ Guild award (awarded by preferential ballot, the same vote calculation used by the Academy).  Last year, however, 1917 followed this same trajectory, only to fall short on Oscar night. Could The Trial of the Chicago 7 upset Nomadland? Nomadland wins Picture and Director, Chicago 7 goes home empty-handed as expected.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is missing a nomination for its director Aaron Sorkin. But the film’s all-star cast did win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, indicating strong support for it among many actors. This was the path to victory for last year’s improbable Oscar best picture winner Parasite (though that film also was nominated for- and won- Director, upsetting 1917 in both categories).  Like 1917 last year, Nomadland was not even nominated for the SAG ensemble award, but that statistic has faded in importance. Three Oscar Best Picture winners have missed out on a SAG ensemble nom- Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), and Green Book (2018). Now this SAG statistic adds Nomadland as an exception as well.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the first film since Walk the Line in 2005 to earn Actor and Actress nominations but not Picture. It is only the fourth film since 1970 and the 11th film ever to earn Actor and Actress but not Picture, Director or Screenplay. One of the other four is What’s Love Got to Do With It, which also had two Black acting leads. Chadwick Boseman did not score double posthumous nominations, missing out on Da 5 Bloods in Supporting Actor. But he is expected to become the third posthumous acting winner for Ma Rainey, after Peter Finch (Network) for Actor and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) for Supporting Actor. Wow. The telecast producers shuffle the awards presentation order to have Actress and Actor at the end of the ceremony, AFTER the Best Picture award. Actor is awarded to a still photo of Anthony Hopkins for The Father (the 83 year old winner is at home in Wales at 4am- asleep, he's not allowed to call in via Zoom, COVID pandemic be damned). Everybody expecting a Boseman win and acceptance speech by his widow are left surprised as the ceremony closes out awkwardly with an absent winner. The last time the Academy altered the presentation order to NOT have Picture as the final award of the evening was in 1971, when an Honorary Award was presented to Charlie Chaplin. He was in attendance and the telecast producers knew he would be.

The precursors are split among the Actress nominees, with Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) winning the (Broadcast Film) Critics’ Choice and Independent Spirit award, Audra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holliday) winning the Golden Globe, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) winning the SAG award, and Frances McDormand (Nomadland) winning the BAFTA. I was torn between Davis and McDormand (both previous Oscar winners), but I’m thinking the enthusiasm for Promising Young Woman might push Mulligan into first place. Nevermind, McDormand wins her third Oscar as lead actress, following wins for Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 14 and 3 years ago, respectively (she also won for co-producing Nomadland).

Two of my favorite films from last year- Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari- will likely make do with single acting wins in the Supporting categories (Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung). Judas also won Best Song for "Fight for You."

Last year, I got 20 out of 24 correct. 17 out of 23 this year. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are now combined into a single Sound award. We’ll see how many I get wrong.   

Look for my more detailed reactions later. But probably not.