Oscar Predictions 2018

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Roma Green Book

DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
ACTOR: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
ACTRESS: Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite
SUP. ACTOR: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
SUP. ACTRESS: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: The Favourite Green Book
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: BlacKkKlansman
ANIMATED FILM: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Roma
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Black Panther
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roma
COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther
EDITING: Vice Bohemian Rhapsody
SCORE: If Beale Street Could Talk Black Panther
SONG: "Shallow”, A Star is Born
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Vice
SOUND MIXING: Bohemian Rhapsody
SOUND EDITING: First Man Bohemian Rhapsody
VISUAL EFFECTS: Avengers: Infinity War First Man
DOCUMENTARY: Free Solo
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: Period. End of Sentence
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: Bao
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Marguerite Skin

Roma: 4  3 wins

Black Panther: 2 3 wins

Bohemian Rhapsody: 2 4 wins
Green Book: 3 wins

If Beale Street Could Talk: 2 1 wins

Vice: 2 1 wins

History can be made with the first film in a foreign language finally winning Best Picture.  But it didn't.  Alfonso Cuaron's ode to his childhood in 1970s Mexico seems to have widespread love in the Academy (tied for 10 nominations with The Favourite), and the film has gathered notice from critics and BAFTA.  But it did miss out on a Screen Actors Guild ensemble nomination, a precursor that used to mean a lot more, until that statistic was broken last year.  Only two Best Picture winners have missed out on a SAG ensemble nom- Braveheart (1995) and The Shape of Water (2017). Furthermore, Roma also missed a Film Editing nomination, a modern precursor with only two exceptions- previous best picture winners Ordinary People (1980) and Birdman (2014). Winning for Director, Cinematography, and Foreign Language Film was probably seen as enough of an honor for the film.

Green Book is probably the more conventional pick for the Academy (yep), but the film seems to have been sullied by several controversies (no), with only co-star Mahershala Ali remaining unscathed in his quest for a second Supporting Actor win.  The film did win at the Golden Globes (Motion Picture- Musical/Comedy) and the PGA award, but like Roma, received no SAG ensemble nomination.  It has a Film Editing nomination, but Peter Farrelly missed on a Directing nomination.  The film won Picture and Original Screenplay.  Farrelly did win as a producer and as a co-writer, along with the son of the white lead character who circulated an Islamophobic conspiracy theory on social media.  Gross.  There have been only 4 Picture winners in the 91 year history of the Oscars to have missed a Directing nomination- Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy, and Argo.  And now 5, with Green Book joining Daisy in the very specific "Best Pictures combating racism with driving" genre.

The only three Picture nominees to have all the key nominations (in acting, directing, writing, editing) are BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, and Vice.  Spike Lee, never nominated for directing for any of his great works (Do the Right Thing, Malcolm X, 25th Hour), finally is recognized by his peers for Klansman, but it seems more likely he could finally win a competitive award for Adapted Screenplay.  A very nice moment.  The Favourite has a stylish director (Yorgos Lanthimos) and a trio of strong female performance (Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz), but they face strong blockers in the form of Cuaron, Glenn Close, and Regina King.  The Favourite missed on Original Screenplay, but Colman upsetting Close for Actress was amazing.  Vice might have had a chance with Christian Bale's transformation into Dick Cheney, but the other play-acting historical figure seems more likely to win (Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury for Bohemian Rhapsody). 

Black Panther is the first comic book movie to receive a Best Picture nomination.  It was the snub of The Dark Knight and director Christopher Nolan a decade ago that led to the expanded Best Picture lineup.  Films such as The Avengers, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Logan, and Wonder Woman still missed, but the zeitgeist is "Wakanda forever!"  However, Panther did not receive nominations for Directing, Acting, Writing, or Editing, making a Picture win extremely unlikely. I am predicting a couple of technical wins, though either Production Design or Costumes could still go to The Favourite.  Nice.  Winning Score also showed some love for the film.

Last year, I got 19 out of 24 correct. 16 out of 24 this time.  I am expecting to be wrong on a couple of these, but we will see what happens.  I underestimated the love of (shudder) Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody.  Loved seeing Olivia Colman win though.   

Look for my more detailed reactions later.