2011 Oscar Nominations: What Could Happen?

When Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning, pay special attention to which film has the most bids – "The Artist" or "Hugo." Over the past 20 years, the movie with the most noms has won BEST PICTURE 15 times. Most predictors are giving "The Artist" overwhelming odds to prevail, but, if "Hugo" is a serious threat, that may become evident by it leading early on with the most category mentions.

Nominees (in order of total nominations) are "Hugo", "The Artist", "Moneyball", "War Horse", "The Descendants", "The Help", "Midnight in Paris", "The Tree of Life", and "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close".

"Hugo" has 11 nominations, compared to 10 for "The Artist".  But, five times previously, Martin Scorsese had a film nominated for Best Picture.  Two of those times- 2002 with "Gangs of New York" (10 noms) and 2004 with "The Aviator" (11 noms), his film had the most nominations.  Once, in 1980 with "Raging Bull" (8 noms), his film was tied with the most.  Those all lost.  But, in 2006, when two other Best Picture nominees had more nominees, his "The Departed" won Best Picture and Director. 

I do think "The Artist" is in pole position for a Best Picture win.  It has won the Broadcast Film Critics (BFCA) and the Producers Guild.  Of the previous 9 films to win both, only "Saving Private Ryan" and "Brokeback Mountain" failed to go on to win the Oscar.

Other notable trivia about "The Artist": it is the fifth predominantly or entirely silent film to score a Best Picture nomination and the first in 83 years (!), following in the footsteps of "Wings" (1927/1928, won), "The Racket" (1927/1928), "Seventh Heaven" (1927/1928) and "The Patriot" (1928/1929); weird eligibility periods those first few years in Oscar history.  If "The Artist" wins, it'll be a nice cap to the first Best Picture win for "Wings", before the Mayan calendar runs out and the world ends (snark).  "The Artist" is also just the seventh predominantly or entirely black-and-white film since 1970 to score a best picture nomination, following "The Last Picture Show" (1971), "Lenny" (1974), "The Elephant Man" (1980), "Raging Bull" (1980), "Schindler's List" (1993, won) and "Good Night, and Good Luck" (2005).

Three other films will certainly be nominated for Best Picture too – "The Descendants," "The Help" and "Midnight in Paris" – but suspense looms over which other flicks might make the cut. This year the number of nominees in the category is flexible. There will be a minimum of five, but if there could be as many as 10 if others receive more than 5% of first-placed votes on the ballots of academy members. I'm going to guess 7 to 8 films will make it.

This is the third year since they expanded Best Picture.  This year, with the new fluctuating number, they went with 9 films. 

"The Descendants", "Hugo" and "The Artist" are in it for Picture.  All of them have Director, Screenplay and Editing nominations.  Only one film since 1932 has won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination ("Driving Miss Daisy" in 1989), only three films have won since 1933 without a Screenplay nomination ("Hamlet" in 1948, "The Sound of Music" in 1965, "Titanic" in 1997) and no film has won it without Editing since 1980 ("Ordinary People").

The next five films with strongest support are "War Horse," "Moneyball," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," "The Tree of Life" and "Bridesmaids." "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" has a shot with the British contingent of the Academy, but, beyond that, if any other contender bumps these front-runners and makes the list, its addition will be a jaw-dropper.

Should have been a contender: Probably not enough of the younger Academy voters will rally behind "Drive", but that would have been great.

Enough auteur fans gave "The Tree of Life" support to get a nod.  But plenty of saps also loved "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close", ugh.  Neither will win.  "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" had an odd road.  It went from mixed critical reviews and a light opening weekend to strong guild support (Producers Guild nod, Directors guild nod for David Fincher) and steady box office.  But not enough #1 votes to get a nod.

The Best Picture nominees seem to indicate that the Broadcast Film Critics Association is still the best precursor.  While "The Tree of Life" and "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" both got ignored by the guilds and Golden Globes, they both had BFCA nominations.  "The Tree of Life" also had overwhelming critical success, in Picture, Director, and acting categories (thank Jessica Chastain for being recognized by critics for her multiple films in 2011).

"Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" may have the lowest precursor support for a Best Picture nominee since "Three Coins in the Fountain" had nothing going into the Oscar nominations back in 1954.  Even the Best Picture nod for "The Blind Side" in 2009 had some foundation in all the love for eventual Best Actress winner Sandra Bullock.  Bullock also stars in "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close". Coincidence?!

Here's how the other top races are shaping up:

BEST ACTOR

Three contenders seem like locks to get in: George Clooney ("The Descendants"), Jean Dujardin ("The Artist"), and Brad Pitt ("Moneyball"). The fourth and fifth slots could go to Michael Fassbender ("Shame"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar"), Gary Oldman ("Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy") or surprise SAG nominee Demian Bichir ("A Better Life"). Clooney is out front to win based on his Golden Globe and Broadcast Film Critics wins.

Should have been a contender: I haven't seen Michael Shannon ("Take Shelter") yet, but given his impressive track record, I would not be completely shocked.  He came out of nowhere in 2008 to get a Supporting Actor Oscar nod for "Revolutionary Road", overshadowing the stars of the film Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet. Still, lightning probably won't strike twice.

Nominees are Demian Bichir, George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Gary Oldman, and Brad Pitt.  Again, Clooney is in the lead.

Gary Oldman's first Oscar nomination! That's right, he was snubbed for "Sid and Nancy", "Romeo is Bleeding", "JFK", "The Professional", "The Contender", and any other number of incredible roles over his long career.

Michael Fassbender had a great year, from "Jane Eyre" to "X-Men: First Class", from "A Dangerous Method" to "Shame".  But the NC-17 rating must have been too much of a barrier. What a shame... you see what I did there?

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis ("The Help") and Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") are neck and neck to win (Streep won the Golden Globe, Davis the BFCA), with Michelle Williams ("My Week with Marilyn") in show position on this racetrack. The other two nominees will probably be Glenn Close ("Albert Nobbs") and Tilda Swinton ("We Need to Talk About Kevin"), but one of them could be bumped by Rooney Mara ("The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo").

Should have been a contender: Charlize Theron ("Young Adult") is just on the outside of these six actresses, but with such a heavy role in a dark comedy, she had an uphill battle. 

Nominees are Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Rooney Mara, Michelle Williams, and Meryl Streep.  Either Streep or Davis, not clear based on precursors.  We'll see after SAG awards this weekend.

Damnit, I'm glad Rooney Mara got a nod, but combined with Glenn Close's pandering for a career Oscar, Tilda Swinton got pushed out.  That frustrates me even more than Fassbender's snub.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christopher Plummer ("Beginners") is so far out front to win in sweeping the precursors that it's virtually impossible for him to lose on Oscar night. Other likely nominees: Albert Brooks ("Drive") and Kenneth Branagh ("My Week with Marilyn"). What gets into the fourth and fifth spot is a toss-up: Jonah Hill ("Moneyball"), Nick Nolte ("Warrior"), Max von Sydow ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"), Andy Serkis ("Rise of the Planet of the Apes") or Ben Kingsley ("Hugo").

Should have been a contender: Patton Oswalt ("Young Adult") is pretty much is in the same boat as co-star Charlize Theron.

The nominees are Kenneth Branagh, Jonah Hill, Nick Nolte, Christopher Plummer, and Max von Sydow.  Plummer winning is probably the most certain win of all the acting categories this year.  Sorry, von Sydow, there's only room for one old guy getting a career Oscar.

Albert Brooks has already become the only person to win four critics awards (New York Film Critics Circle, Boston Society of Film Critics, Chicago Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics) for Best Supporting Actor and not earn a SAG nomination.  But he also just became the only one not to get an Oscar nomination either.  That's too bad.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Octavia Spencer ("The Help") for the win. Berenice Bejo could pull off an upset if there's a juggernaut for "The Artist" on Oscar night. Jessica Chastain ("The Help") will certainly be nominated too. Melissa McCarthy ("Bridesmaids"), Shailene Woodley ("The Descendants") and Janet McTeer ("Albert Nobbs") duke it out for the fourth and fifth slot.

Should have been a contender: Carey Mulligan ("Shame") seems like she's just on the outside, but most of the attention for the film is going to co-star Michael Fassbender.

Nominees are Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer, and Octavia Spencer.  Spencer probably has this.

I'm glad multiple movies for Jessica Chastain didn't confuse voters and cause a snub.  Still prefer her in "The Tree of Life" though.  Too bad for Shailene Woodley, but her lack of a SAG nomination revealed soft support.

BEST DIRECTOR

Guaranteed nominees: Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist"), Alexander Payne ("The Descendants"), and Martin Scorsese ("Hugo"). Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris") will probably get in too. That fifth spot could go to David Fincher ("Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"), Tate Taylor ("The Help") or – outside shot -- Steven Spielberg ("War Horse").

Should have been a contender: Terrence Malick ("The Tree of Life") did get some critical support but missed a lot of the key precursors. Still, he could follow the track laid by David Lynch, who has received a lone director Oscar nod in the past without key precursors not once but twice ("Blue Velvet" and "Mulholland Dr.")! 

Nominees are Woody Allen, Michel Hazanavicius, Terrence Malick, Alexander Payne, and Martin Scorsese.  I would guess Hazanavicius will go along the ride with "The Artist", but there could always be Picture/Director split, letting the Academy honor Scorsese.  Let's see in a few weeks who the DGA awards.

"War Horse" was nominated for Best Picture but Steven Spielberg wasn't for Best Director- making him now the only director since the Studio era to have that happen to him three times ("Jaws", "The Color Purple").  The snub by the Directors Guild really hurt him.  The Academy has always been colder to Spielberg than the DGA.  He is the all-time DGA champ with 10 nominations (and three wins).  He was the first ever to win the DGA while not earning an Oscar nomination (in 1985 with "The Color Purple") and four times, he has been nominated by the DGA without an Oscar nomination ("Jaws", "The Color Purple", "Empire of the Sun", "Amistad").  So if the DGA couldn't back Spielberg for "War Horse", a snub by the Academy is not that big of a surprise...

I am super pumped that Terrence Malick made it.  Here was his path to the nomination. Since 1966, when the National Society of Film Critics joined the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle in giving awards out, only 17 times has a director won three critics awards* in one year.  Of those 17, only twice before this year did that director fail to get a DGA nomination- David Lynch in 1986 for "Blue Velvet" and... David Lynch again in 2001 for "Mulholland Drive".  Malick, who won the LA Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, and Chicago Film Critics Best Director awards for "The Tree of Life", made it three.

What were Malick's Oscar chances? Both times Lynch was nominated at the Oscars; in fact his nomination was the only one for both films.  Only one director has earned three critics awards and failed to earn an Oscar nomination- Ang Lee for "Sense and Sensibility" in 1995.  But he had earned a DGA nomination.  No director with three critics wins has ever failed to earn both DGA and Oscar nominatons.  Malick's Oscar nod today maintained that.

*Critics Awards: National Board of Review (began in 1930), New York Film Critics Circle (1935), National Society of Film Critics (1966), Los Angeles Film Critics (1975), Boston Society of Film Critics (1980), Chicago Film Critics (1988).  While every major city and/or region has critics awards now (Dallas, San Francisco, Oklahoma... wtf?), these have been the strongest critical precursors. 

 

The Best of the Criterion Collection 2011

I plan on putting together my regular review of the Academy Award wins and the best films of 2011.  But I thought I would highlight one of my favorite outlets for viewing films: the Criterion Collection.  They have had some incredible releases this year.  While there have been several blu-ray upgrades of existing titles, it's also been heartening to see some new titles in the collection.  With nearly 600 films, Criterion has touched upon all corners of the medium.


I want to focus on my ten favorite new releases from the Criterion Collection for 2011.  One great promotional tool that Criterion began this year was their "Three Reasons" videos.  A good way to explain why the film is important and worth including in the collection.


Before going through my top ten, I just want to mention a few of the blu-ray upgrades I was particularly pleased with:
The Double Life of Veronique (Krzysztof Kieslowski, 1991, Spine #359)
Smiles of a Summer Night (Ingmar Bergman, 1955, #237)
Solaris (Andrei Tarkovsky, 1972, #164)
High and Low (Akira Kurosawa, 1963, #24)
The Battle of Algiers (Gillo Pontecorvo, 1966, #249)
3 Women (Robert Altman, 1977, #230)
Fanny and Alexander (Ingmar Begman, 1982, #261)
The Rules of the Game (Jean Renoir, 1939, #216)
Rushmore (Wes Anderson, 1998, #65).


10. Something Wild (Jonathan Demme, 1986, #563)

The soundtrack is wonderful.  Jeff Daniels, Melanie Griffith, and Ray Liotta all do quality work here.  I love the sharp shift from humor to terror.  This is a hard movie to classify.  A rare blind buy for me, but I'm glad I got it. I just wish there were more extras.  A short interview with director Jonathan Demme doesn't cut it.

9. The Complete Jean Vigo (1930-1934, #578)

Early French director who died far too young and robbed us of potential masterworks.  This would be included solely on the strength of L'Atalante, but having all his work here makes it essential.

8. Island of Lost Souls (Erle C. Kenton, 1932, #586)

This film fits in right along with all the classic Universal horror films of the 1930s like Dracula, Frankenstein, and The Invisible Man (like this, an adaptation of an H.G. Wells novel).  Charles Laughton is very creepy as Doctor Moreau, as is Bela Lugosi.

7. Broadcast News (James L. Brooks, 1987, #552)

This is a wonderful film.  It's got the media commentary that still rings true, but I love the wit and dialogue that doesn't talk down to its audience.  It's a love triangle that is more mature and still more entertaining.  William Hurt, Holly Hunter, Albert Brooks, all three might be at their best here.
There is no Three Reasons video for Broadcast News, so here's a key, if spoilerly, scene.

6. 12 Angry Men (Sidney Lumet, 1957, #591)

Henry Fonda as the lone dissenting vote has you on his side as he fights the prejudices of his fellow jurors all too eager to convict.  Very strong ensemble cast and an effective debut from master director Sidney Lumet.

5. Blow Out (Brian De Palma, 1981, #562)

I'm not a big Brian De Palma or John Travolta fan.  I'm not even a huge fan of this film.  But I do admire that their collaboration here works and the film, while I don't strongly connect with, is a tragic love story and political thriller all rolled into one.  And it's done very well.

4. The Great Dictator (Charles Chaplin, 1940, #565)

I love Chaplin so much.  When you see that final speech in this film, you will too.

3. Carlos (Olivier Assayas, 2010, #582)

A double feature of this and The Battle of Algiers would be nice way to spend a day. The fearless performance by Edgar Ramirez as the world-famous terrorist holds your attention throughout.

2. Sweet Smell of Success (Alexander Mackendrick, 1957, #555)

Burt Lancaster as that magnificent bastard, gossip columnist J.J. Hunsecker.  Manhattan is a character, inviting and threatening.  Mad Men will never be this cool, because this nailed it in the time it was actually capturing.

1. Three Colors Trilogy (Krzysztof Kieslowski, 1993-1994, 587-590)

 

 

Kieslowski says everything, with three humane films and three beautiful women to walk us through it all (Juliette Binoche, Julie Delpy, Irene Jacob).