Oscar Predictions 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Nomadland

DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Anthony Hopkins, The Father
ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman Frances McDormand, Nomadland
SUP. ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
SUP. ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: The Father
ANIMATED FILM: Soul
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Another Round
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland Mank
COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
EDITING: Sound of Metal
SCORE: Soul
SONG: “Speak Low”, One Night in Miami "Fight for You", Judas and the Black Messiah
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SOUND: Sound of Metal
VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet
DOCUMENTARY: My Octopus Teacher
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: A Love Song for Latasha Colette
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: If Anything Happens I Love You
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Feeling Through Two Distant Strangers

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: 3 2 wins

Nomadland: 3 wins

Promising Young Woman: 2 1 wins

Sound of Metal: 2 wins

Soul: 2 wins

The Father: 1 2 wins

Judas and the Black Messiah: 1 2 wins 

Mank: 1 2 wins

I expect Nomadland to claim Best Picture and Best Director, with Chloé Zhao becoming the second woman and the first Asian woman to win in the Director category. There have only been 7 women who have received Director nominations in the Academy’s 93 year history (and two of the nominations are from this year- Zhao and Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman). Nomadland has won during the awards season the BAFTA best film, Golden Globe best picture- drama, and the Producers’ Guild award (awarded by preferential ballot, the same vote calculation used by the Academy).  Last year, however, 1917 followed this same trajectory, only to fall short on Oscar night. Could The Trial of the Chicago 7 upset Nomadland? Nomadland wins Picture and Director, Chicago 7 goes home empty-handed as expected.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is missing a nomination for its director Aaron Sorkin. But the film’s all-star cast did win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, indicating strong support for it among many actors. This was the path to victory for last year’s improbable Oscar best picture winner Parasite (though that film also was nominated for- and won- Director, upsetting 1917 in both categories).  Like 1917 last year, Nomadland was not even nominated for the SAG ensemble award, but that statistic has faded in importance. Three Oscar Best Picture winners have missed out on a SAG ensemble nom- Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), and Green Book (2018). Now this SAG statistic adds Nomadland as an exception as well.

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the first film since Walk the Line in 2005 to earn Actor and Actress nominations but not Picture. It is only the fourth film since 1970 and the 11th film ever to earn Actor and Actress but not Picture, Director or Screenplay. One of the other four is What’s Love Got to Do With It, which also had two Black acting leads. Chadwick Boseman did not score double posthumous nominations, missing out on Da 5 Bloods in Supporting Actor. But he is expected to become the third posthumous acting winner for Ma Rainey, after Peter Finch (Network) for Actor and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) for Supporting Actor. Wow. The telecast producers shuffle the awards presentation order to have Actress and Actor at the end of the ceremony, AFTER the Best Picture award. Actor is awarded to a still photo of Anthony Hopkins for The Father (the 83 year old winner is at home in Wales at 4am- asleep, he's not allowed to call in via Zoom, COVID pandemic be damned). Everybody expecting a Boseman win and acceptance speech by his widow are left surprised as the ceremony closes out awkwardly with an absent winner. The last time the Academy altered the presentation order to NOT have Picture as the final award of the evening was in 1971, when an Honorary Award was presented to Charlie Chaplin. He was in attendance and the telecast producers knew he would be.

The precursors are split among the Actress nominees, with Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) winning the (Broadcast Film) Critics’ Choice and Independent Spirit award, Audra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holliday) winning the Golden Globe, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) winning the SAG award, and Frances McDormand (Nomadland) winning the BAFTA. I was torn between Davis and McDormand (both previous Oscar winners), but I’m thinking the enthusiasm for Promising Young Woman might push Mulligan into first place. Nevermind, McDormand wins her third Oscar as lead actress, following wins for Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 14 and 3 years ago, respectively (she also won for co-producing Nomadland).

Two of my favorite films from last year- Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari- will likely make do with single acting wins in the Supporting categories (Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung). Judas also won Best Song for "Fight for You."

Last year, I got 20 out of 24 correct. 17 out of 23 this year. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are now combined into a single Sound award. We’ll see how many I get wrong.   

Look for my more detailed reactions later. But probably not.

Oscar Predictions 2019

 

And so it goes (again)!  Will update post afterwards and gauge how close my predictions were.

PICTURE: Parasite
DIRECTOR: Sam Mendes, 1917 Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
SUP. ACTOR: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
SUP. ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
ORIG. SCREENPLAY: Parasite
ADAP. SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit
ANIMATED FILM: Toy Story 4
INTERNATIONAL FILM: Parasite
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
COSTUME DESIGN: Little Women
EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
SCORE: Joker
SONG: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”, Rocketman
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Bombshell
SOUND MIXING: 1917
SOUND EDITING: 1917 Ford v Ferrari
VISUAL EFFECTS: 1917
DOCUMENTARY: For Sama American Factory
DOC- SHORT SUBJECT: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
SHORT FILM- ANIMATED: Hair Love
SHORT FILM- LIVE ACTION: Nefta Football Club The Neighbors' Window

1917: 5 3 wins 
Parasite: 3 4 wins 

Joker: 2 wins 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: 2 wins

Ford v Ferrari: 2 wins

The chances of Parasite making history by becoming the first film in a foreign language to win Best Picture are small.  Last year, Roma was brought down by the safe and familiar Green Book.  It doesn’t help that some Academy members have open contempt and dismissiveness towards any film not produced in the Hollywood studio system with predominantly American casts and crews.  Bong Joon Ho’s class thriller/drama/comedy defies categorization but is watchable and engaging, subtitles be damned.  It did make history by winning the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award (the first foreign language film to do so), indicating strong support for it among many actors.  The strongest competition comes from Sam Mendes’ World War I drama 1917 which has won the BAFTA best film, Golden Globe best picture- drama, and the Producers’ Guild award (awarded by preferential ballot, the same vote calculation used by the Academy). 

Though 1917 was not even nominated for the SAG ensemble award, that statistic has faded in importance.  Three Oscar Best Picture winners have missed out on a SAG ensemble nom- Braveheart (1995), The Shape of Water (2017), and Green Book (2018).  SAG ensemble win was a sign of good things to come! 

Parasite does has the required Editing nomination, while 1917 does not, though voters may overlook this to still honor the “seamless” filmmaking technique in the war film- Best Picture winners Ordinary People (1980) and Birdman (2014) still prevailed even without an Editing nom.  The statistic holds this year! 

Parasite is getting my prediction even though the hurdles are great.  Even if Parasite misses on Picture to 1917, International Film and some other consolation win (likely Original Screenplay, which was also won at the Writer’s Guild and BAFTA) will still give the film some respect.  Shocking wins for Picture and Director, wow!  Bong breaks a barrier that great foreign filmmakers like Jean Renoir, Ingmar Bergman, Akira Kurosawa, Federico Fellini, Francois Truffaut, Pedro Almodovar, Michael Haneke were never able to do.  Mendes losing the director Oscar adds another exception to the otherwise strong DGA predictor (now 8 times not matching in its 72 year history).  

I’m disappointed that the new adaptation of Little Women didn’t get more love (no Greta Gerwig nom as director), and that the wins for the film will be few and far between.  Nothing for either Saoirse Ronan or Florence Pugh (up against the seemingly unstoppable Renee Zellweger and Laura Dern, respectively).  Even the potential consolation of an Adapted Screenplay win for Gerwig seems unlikely due to the rise of Taika Waititi’s Nazi satire Jojo Rabbit (won both the Writer’s Guild and BAFTA).  A single win for Costume Design was underwhelming, but expected. 

Joaquin Phoenix is long overdue after a career of harsh, lived-in performances (see Gladiator, Walk the Line, Two Lovers, The Master, Her, Inherent Vice, The Immigrant, You Were Never Really Here).  I’m not as enthused with Todd Phillips’ Joker and its pretensions as high art (good Taxi Driver cosplay, here are 11 nominations), but the acting of Phoenix is undeniable.  It seems like his time has arrived.  Now Phoenix joins the late Heath Ledger for winning for playing the same character in two separate films- The Joker in The Dark Knight (2008) and Joker.  This is a feat only replicated once before- Marlon Brando and Robert De Niro winning for playing Vito Corleone in The Godfather (1972) and The Godfather Part II (1974). 

Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a great tribute to a bygone era, but it’s hard for the film to break through against contenders like Parasite, 1917.  The film will likely have to make due with wins for a deserving Brad Pitt and Production Design.  One of my other top films, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, seems likely to go home empty-handed, despite 10 nominations, including deserving supporting turns from Al Pacino and Joe Pesci.  Very reminiscent to another Scorsese shut-out- Gangs of New York (2002)- 10 nominations, 0 wins.  But Bong Joon Ho's love for Scorsese especially (as well as QT) during his surprise Directing win was quite a tribute. 

Last year, I got 16 out of 24 correct.  We’ll see how many I get wrong.  I got 20 out of 24, but I'm happy to be wrong about Director! 

Look for my more detailed reactions later.  Maybe, haha.